Weekend of 9/11
Here are the investments for this week:
Packers: -210 (Return: 0.476), spread is -4
Saints: +175 (Return: 1.75), spread is +4
Chargers: -400 (Return: 0.25), spread is -9 against Minnesota
A couple of notes:
- My model are based off of -200/+170 for a -4 spread so it’s good to see that the returns are coming in close to the model. A little better for the underdog, a little worse for the favorite. This is something I want to keep an eye on this year. The model was right on for -9 (-400), again, that’s good to see.
- On a game note: it’s interesting that the Pack is favored by that much. NO is a good team, and it was thought that they did well in Free Agency. Plus the Packers could not stop their offense a couple of years ago in NO. But the game is in Green Bay and in the NFL home field is worth 3 points, so goes the prevailing wisdom. -1 seems about right for this game
- The Chargers spread seems about right. I think the Vikes will be better than people think. By “people” I mean Packer fans. I’m excited to watch the game
- I just realized the true benefit of investing like this: I now have 3 teams that I really care about. 3 times the rooting interest on Football weekends. I got shorted one game because the Saints/Pack but I’m really looking forward to this season. Cross your fingers, sacrifice a live chicken, pray to Joe-Boo, etc… that Brees, Rivers, and most of all, Rodgers stay healthy this year.
Thanks for reading.
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